Remain Calm. All is Well.

As I write this on an early Sunday afternoon, over 80 families are sitting in shock at what has happened. At the moment, 71 people, many of them children, are known dead and 10-20 others still missing and presumed so. Many of the dead and missing are young girls, spending a glorious part of their summer at a camp called Camp Mystic, a Christian-themed summer camp established in the 1920s.

The missing girls were mostly very young, 8 or 9 years old. Like most of you, I spent a couple of summers at summer camp, in my case Camp Allen, a facility owned by the Episcopal Diocese of Texas. Later, my daughter Mary-Brigid spent a couple of summers there as well, though by then the camp had moved from the Gulf Coast to a spot near the Brazos River northwest of Houston.

Like Camp Mystic, the kids canoed, swam and generally goofed around in the calm waters of Texas' largest river. But Camp Mystic was farther west, in the Hill Country and hard by the Guadalupe River. I have spent some time there as an auto writer for what the Texas Auto Writer's Association calls it's annual Texas Truck Rodeo. Held at the beautiful Knibbe Ranch which borders the Guadalupe, it is lovely and idyllic. Until this happens...

Mind you, this transformation took 20 minutes total. Here is another example of how a flash flood can take you by surprise...

The results can be seen in one of the camp cabins, filled in this stock photo by happy, laughing girls ready for a summer adventure...

And now looks like this...

So, why, even given the speed at which floods in that area can form, was everyone so unprepared? Of course, the ostensive leaders of our state, Abbott, Patrick and their crew are blaming the weather forecasts. From the Daily Beast...

“The original forecast that we received Wednesday from the National Weather Service predicted 3-6 inches of rain in the Concho Valley and 4-8 inches in the Hill Country,” said Texas Emergency Management Chief W. Nim Kidd at a press conference Friday. “The amount of rain that fell at this specific location was never in any of those forecasts.”

And of course, Lt. Governor Dan Patrick was quick to shift the blame as well. From TV station KXAN...

On Friday, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick also said during a separate press event that TDEM Region 6 Assistant Chief Jay Hall “personally contacted the judges and mayors in that area and notified them all of potential flooding.” KXAN has requested record of that communication to verify that statement and its level of urgency.

“Yesterday morning, the message was sent,” Patrick added. “It is up to the local counties and mayors under the law to evacuate if they feel a need. That information was passed along.”

And of course, they all blame the National Weather Service, from whom everyone pretty much gets their weather forecasts. The NWS Austin/San Antonio Meteorologist in Charge is a guy named Pat Vesper. As KXAN reported...

"...directly under Vesper at the local NWS office is a key position – warning coordination meteorologist (WCM) – that has remained vacant since April. The role was most recently held by longtime employee Paul Yura, who took an early retirement package offered to agency workers as the administration worked to reduce the budget and personnel number at the NWS and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Yura, who KXAN recently reported spent more than half of his 32-year career at the local NWS office, gained tremendous experience understanding local weather patterns while ensuring timely warnings get disseminated to the public in a multitude of ways. The importance of his role as WCM cannot be understated."

In fact, roughly 17% of NOAA's staff has been cut. And as hurricane season gets underway, those missing meteorologists will be even more sorely missed.

But you notice, not one of these folks blames the Trump cutbacks in staffing across the federal government for this or any other issue. That is obviously because they can't politically.

Whack me in the knee with a bat and complain that I'm limping.

So, we go through the standard drill after an unspeakable tragedy as Abbott, Patrick and Trump offer thoughts and prayers, families mourn their dead, and wait for the help that usually comes from the Federal Emergency Management Agency or FEMA. Except, FEMA Isn't the FEMA of old. From the Texas Observer...

DOGE already cut roughly 20 percent of FEMA’s staff and moved to freeze its funds. And Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled his interest in shifting disaster relief responsibilities entirely to the states. On June 11, he made that threat more concrete by saying that his administration would start phasing out FEMA after this current hurricane season ends in November. “We want to wean off of FEMA, and we want to bring it down to the state level,” Trump said. “A governor should be able to handle it, and frankly, if they can’t handle it, the aftermath, then maybe they shouldn’t be governor.” 

Except, in Texas, they will still be governing because party affiliation and fealty to MAGA is all that matters.

So, as all involved take a victory lap over the passage of what they all euphemistically and frankly, childishly, called the "Big Beautiful Bill" of Trump and congressional goodies, we are finding out that maybe all those government employees weren't hired just willy-nilly. And maybe Musk's gang of Chainsaw-wielding Teenaged Mutant Ninja Staff Cutters didn't do their homework after all.

And of course, the bill ignores, if not disputes, the scientific consensus on climate change, you know, a big contributor to larger storms, wildfires and greater flash floods, as it knocks the pins out from under further implementation of renewable energy. I mean, if you think warming is a myth, who needs it, right? The supreme irony here is the precariously wobbly Texas energy grid gets 30% of it's juice from wind and solar. So, sure, let's ditch it.

Now, my fellow Outlaw Writer Jim Moore, as usual, perfectly outlines all the numbers in the budget package, and this mania for removing all migrants from the country and the actual cost to our economy. This is, of course, setting aside the casual cruelty we are seeing daily as the President, ICE Barbie and Florida's miniature Governor laugh about prisoners being eaten at the new Alligator Auschwitz.

And of course, the picture of the Speaker of the House, without a touch of irony, handing over his gavel to the President at the bill signing.

The symbolism here is deafening.

But the long term consequences of this new bill cannot be ignored. I have gone on endlessly about the fiscal insanity involved here, and the desperate defenses being offered for it. But the facts are hard to dispute.

"It's like the house is burning down and we're throwing in some accelerant instead of some fire extinguisher," said Kent Smetters, professor of economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton. "Even without this bill, our fiscal house is burning … we're not too big to fail."

Here's another irony for you. Wharton is the school Trump attended. And I do mean only attended. That's because nothing seems to have sunk in.

At the center of the current debate is Trump's sweeping policy measure, which the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects would add $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next 10 years. Now, of course, Trump disputes that, along with the amen corner in Congress, since they claim the increased growth from this bill will easily pay for that.

Let's be clear. Tax cuts do not pay for themselves and never have. When Reagan Budget Director David Stockman presented the plain facts of the matter to the President and gathered cabinet members in the 80's, Chief of Staff James Baker said, "You mean it really is voodoo after all?"

In fact, the effects of this bill will actually, ultimately slow our economy, according to the Tax Policy Center. TPC estimates that economic growth from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), would offset less than 10 percent of its $2.4 trillion net cost. The bill’s policies, macroeconomic effects, and interest costs would increase federal debt by $3.0 trillion, or 7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), by 2034. Within 25 years, these higher deficits would lead to a decline in GDP.

In other words, the economy will ultimately shift into reverse

But now, we are so far down the debt road, that even without this bill, we are in trouble. And Semafor reports this...

The US dollar is on track for its worst year in modern history and may not be done falling yet. The greenback is down more than 7% this year and Morgan Stanley predicts it could fall another 10%. A weaker dollar could make US exports more competitive, but makes imports more expensive, adding to the sting of tariffs.

Then, Douglas Elmendorf, professor at Harvard Kennedy School and former economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers told ABC...

"Americans should care, because bigger federal deficits mean higher interest rates. That means more expensive mortgages, car loans, and it crowds out business investments that would make workers more productive.

Plus, more debt means less room to respond to crises.

It's like a family that taps out its credit cards and then has a problem with the roof of their house. You want to have a little room to maneuver in case bad things happen, and we are running out of that room.

This could kick off a doom loop: the debt makes interest rates higher, which then makes the debt even bigger, making it even harder for the U.S. to sell off its debt, thus ballooning the debt even more (hence the doom loop).

This bill will make interest rates higher and makes the risks of falling into a doom loop higher than it would be otherwise. But economists still don't know when we'd hit the doom loop," Elmendorf said.

If that scenario unfolds, the U.S. could be forced into painful austerity.

If we fall into a doom loop, then the U.S. has to make dramatic cutbacks in federal benefit programs like social security and Medicaid and sharply raise taxes. That will be really bad for people's standard of living. That's why it's important to take moderate actions before that happens," Elmendorf added.

At that point, it probably won't matter what cuts are made to Medicaid or SNAP, the damage will be such that all programs will be reduced to little or nothing.

It also won't matter how many ICE agents this new budget adds, or how many linear feet of border wall you build, or the plans made for some fanciful "Golden Dome" missile defense (and why is everything gold?). There won't be money for any of it because we will spend every spare cent on debt service.

Both parties have contributed to this going back to 2001, the last balanced budget we had. But now, it seems our elected representatives have decided, too much debt is simply not enough. I suppose one might hope that at some point it would get so bad that even die-hard loyalists will rebel, But consider this comment at the July 4th Trump rally from a fan to a right-wing reporter...

KAREN SERGESON: I work for a company, Detroit Stoker, and they do industrial boiling. The system that moves it into the furnaces, we have customers all over. But the tariff is really hurting that company right now because the parts are coming from China, the castings.

And the tariffs, we’ve got a lot of stock that is supposed to go out of country. And it’s sitting on our dock because the customer doesn’t want to accept it because of the tariffs right now.

CHRISTINA LOREN: Import taxes are a real problem and you know what’s interesting is is you’re here. This is impacting your industry directly. What would you say if President Trump was watching right now and you had his ear?

KAREN SERGESON: You’re doing a fantastic job, keep it up, and you’re making America great again!

Or consider this more personal example reported on KTTV in Los Angeles...

A California man refused to tone down his support for President Donald Trump even after his wife, an Iranian national, was taken by Immigration and Customs Enforcement last week amid fears of “sleeper cell” attacks in the wake of the U.S. strikes on Iran.

“I’m still supporting [Trump],” Sahakyan said. “Even though my friends say take the flag down, you’re going through a lot. I’m like, no. The flag stands.”

So, if you are thinking this will all eventually sink in, you are underestimating the level of devotion involved. Not from politicians. That's just fear of electoral anger from the Prez. But from the voters, like these, they fear he will stir up.

But there is a light on the horizon. OK, a dim one, but a light anyway.

Yeah, you guessed it. Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene is ready to introduce a bill to make manipulating the weather a felony.

It prohibits “the injection, release, or dispersion of chemicals or substances into the atmosphere for the express purpose of altering weather, temperature, climate, or sunlight intensity.”

“It will be a felony offense,” she said.

“I have been researching weather modification and working with the legislative counsel for months writing this bill. We must end the dangerous and deadly practice of weather modification and geoengineering,” she concluded.

This is no doubt a reference to the goofy conspiracy theory that the white, smoky lines in the sky from passing planes are actually the result of these chemicals being dispersed in so-called "chemtrails."

They are actually the result of hot aircraft engines in the cold atmosphere at high altitudes making condensation or "contrails."

But, wait a minute. What if chemtrails are really the cause of autism?

Operator, get me RFK Jr, immediately.