The Times They are A'Changin'

Before Operation Epstein Fury erupted in Iran, the United States was considered the preeminent military power in the world, and it certainly is. We have the best of everything when it comes to military hardware; bombers, fighters, missiles, warships, well-trained troops and experienced leadership. Well, as for the last category, that cadre is being whittled down daily by the man whose photo pops up when you google the phrase "in over his head."

And those of us raised during the Cold War would probably say that Russia comes in at number two in terms of super power military prowess. I mean, come on, look at the cool jets, massive submarines, intimidating tanks and scary missiles you see in the May Day parade in Moscow every year.

But something has changed, and it is the nature of war itself. At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, most observers gave Zelenskyy and his bunch roughly a snowball's chance of lasting a month against the Red Army. But Putin's finest have been fought to a standstill by a military we thought was held together by chewing gum and scotch tape.

In fact, President Trump, showing typical fealty to Vlad the Impaler, decided to cut off US weapons to Ukraine and let the Russkies pretty much have their way. I mean, come on, if only Zelenskyy had said thank you more in the Oval Office. But Ukraine has held them off without having to resort to Slim Pickens tactics...

And now, in Iran, we are suing for peace, no matter what the President calls it. Because firstly, the Strait of Hormuz is closed and we can't open it, and secondly, if Iran keeps sending missiles to various Gulf States, how are Kushner, Whitkoff's son, Eric and Don Jr. going to get the investments they need out of the oil sheiks? And will Qatar ask the President for their 747 back?

But the main reason Don and Vlad find themselves in this expensive predicament is that war has changed. How could two 3rd or 4th-rate military powers frustrate the Big 2? The answer is drones.

Both powers have the most expensive stuff their budgets can manage, and in the US, the only President we have wants to spend one-third more on defense. Some figures...

Mig-35 - $48 million
F-15 - $43 million
F-18 - $79 million
SU-35 - $76 million
F-35 - $121 million
F-22 - $350 million
B-2 bomber - $2.4 billion

A WWII Corsair fighter plane in today's dollars would be about a million bucks.

In short, losing any of these, and both countries have lost some in these conflicts, is painful money-wise. I had a friend in the Commemorative Air Force, the group that keeps old WWII planes flying, whose son was a B-52 pilot. I asked him years ago during a flight if his kid wanted to fly the then-new B-2. No, he said, because if I crash one, I'll spend the rest of my Air Force career filling out paperwork.

The cost of a Patriot Missile, used for shooting down drones and other missiles, is about $3-7 million each. We can make 600-650 of them a year. There is also the so-called THAAD Missile that can intercept more sophisticated, higher flying missiles at $13 million each.

So, yeah, we can shoot these drones down. But, the Shahed drone costs about $35,000 and can be made from over the counter commercial parts.

Russia is currently building about 20 of their version, based on Iranian plans, a day. So, we are spending $4 million to shoot down a $35,000 target. Now, we are building our versions as well, but what this means is that modern war will see swarms of drones from all sides, difficult and expensive to stop, hitting targets anywhere.

Add in AI targeting and satellite information and it will be a matter of who can hit harder, quicker.

Drones have been around since the end of WWI. This is a target drone in the 1930's...

This is 1943...

And of course, Germany had the V-1 Buzz Bomb during the war...

These were all unmanned, sometimes radio-controlled flying bombs. During the Cold War, there was a clash of philosophies between the US and the Soviet Union. We favored fewer, more sophisticated planes, mostly while Russia went for quantity over quality, hoping to overwhelm defenses. Now that they are spending as much as we are for the latest and greatest, we find the game has changed. It turns out cheaper and more plentiful flying machines won the contest.

In both Ukraine and Iran, small, relatively primitive military powers can frustrate the plans of the most sophisticated armed forces on the planet. It is estimated that 71% of the damage Iran has inflicted on targets throughout the region is from drones. Bases, ships, and cities are vulnerable and no one can afford enough interceptors to knock them all down.

But the pricey stuff has strong advocates in Washington, and they contribute lots of campaign money. So, why not spend another $1.5 trillion more on defense? There's lots more we can cut, right? SNAP is seeing more cuts, Medicaid, the US Forest Service is being slowly dismantled, and NASA, in the wake of the Artemis mission, will have the smallest budget since before JFK said let's go to the moon. Science, research, and public health will all be reduced or, in some cases, eliminated.

Ike was right about the military-industrial complex...

So, as so many times in the past, we must fully take into account the changing nature of warfare. I'm sure that China is doing that right now as regards Taiwan. But, that little problem will, no doubt, be handled by the new "Golden Fleet."